i5 Cancelled: What next?

Word now is that the i5 project (which most believed would be an extended version of the i3 CF shell and larger battery) has been cancelled by BMW and a statement that their electrification activities would concentrate on electrified versions of their regular lines of autos ie; 530e, 330e, etc. The common wisdom is that BMW is loosing money on each i3 sold, when development costs are included. Also, the i3 is not competitive in a larger market with Bolt, Tesla Model 3, upcoming 2018 Golf E, and plug in Hybrids from Hyundai with all electric ranges on a par with the i3 and costing tens of thousands of dollars less. i3 sales will disappear this time next year. Will BMW drop the price of the i3 $20K next year and increase battery capacity closer to 200 miles? I don't think so. I think the upcoming i3 Sport will be the last i3, before being cancelled after the 2018 model year. If so, will BMW provide replacement batteries in 8 years? Is it time to bail out even with the huge losses we will take because of the horrible resale values for our i3's?

ted99 said:

The common wisdom is that BMW is loosing money on each i3 sold, when development costs are included.

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In the U.S., the i3 has value to BMW due to the CARB credits that each earns which saves BMW the money that it would have to pay to buy these credits from a company like Tesla.

Also, Munro and Associates, who did a complete teardown and cost analysis of an i3, estimated that the i3 would be profitable after only 20,000 had been sold, a number that has been easily exceeded.

So I'm not confident in the common wisdom that believes that BMW loses money on each i3 sale. But no one outside of BMW knows for certain.

ted99 said:

Also, the i3 is not competitive in a larger market with Bolt, Tesla Model 3, upcoming 2018 Golf E, and plug in Hybrids from Hyundai with all electric ranges on a par with the i3 and costing tens of thousands of dollars less.

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BMW's ICE vehicles cost tens of thousands of dollars more than many cars yet they continue to sell. People buy cars for all sorts of reasons, not just range in the case of EV's. I don't need more range, would not want to pay for it, and would not want a heavier car because of it, but I was willing to pay more for the i3's CFRP/aluminum/thermoplastic construction that doesn't corrode in my humid, salty climate.

I have no interest in a Model 3 because it's too large, too heavy because of its large battery pack that I don't need, has too much steel in its construction, and isn't very efficient for an EV.

I have no interest in a Bolt because it has too much steel in its construction, it is too heavy because of its large battery pack that I don't need, it has front wheel drive, and its rear suspension is a crude twist-beam axle.

I have no interest in an e-Golf because it has too much steel in its construction, it is too heavy, it has front wheel drive, and its battery pack has rudimentary air cooling.

The Hyundai Ioniq plug-in hybrid has only about half the all electric range of a 60 Ah i3. The Ioniq EV has only slightly more range than the 94 Ah i3, is all steel construction, is too large and too heavy, and has front wheel drive.

All of these cars will sell well enough including the i3.

ted99 said:

i3 sales will disappear this time next year.

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Really?! They are selling very well in Norway. They are sold in many countries. The U.S. is only one of its markets.

ted99 said:

I think the upcoming i3 Sport will be the last i3, before being cancelled after the 2018 model year. If so, will BMW provide replacement batteries in 8 years? Is it time to bail out even with the huge losses we will take because of the horrible resale values for our i3's?

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If you are so concerned about something that seems very unlikely, then is it really worth worrying about? Go ahead and take the depreciation loss and enjoy life without worrying about your i3.

Besides owning our 2014 i3 BEV, we also own a 2000 Honda Insight hybrid. Far more i3's have been sold than the <20,000 Insights that were sold. Yet I can buy a replacement Insight battery pack from one of several 3rd-party battery pack builders for less than Honda charges and that is superior to Honda's replacement battery pack. There's no reason to believe that the same won't happen with the i3 after it is discontinued which will happen eventually but almost certainly not in 2018.

I'm more concerned about the i3's expensive parts and repair costs after its warranty expires. But other than a couple of warranty repairs, our i3 has had no problems. If it doesn't become expensive to own due to being unreliable and we can keep it for as long as we've had our Insight, depreciation will not be an issue.

Hi,

ted99 said:

Word now is that the i5 project (which most believed would be an extended version of the i3 CF shell and larger battery) has been cancelled by BMW and a statement that their electrification activities would concentrate on electrified versions of their regular lines of autos ie; 530e, 330e, etc.

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Just wondering, is there a public source, yet?

Having retired three weeks ago, I am not going to be a good candidate for a future, slightly larger i3. But I think there is a good reason for having all BMW models offered in 30 mi EV range cars using the strong, instant EV torque to augment the gas engine. The 30 mi range will easily handle 'gas-free' banned, urban areas.

ted99 said:

The common wisdom is that BMW is loosing money on each i3 sold, when development costs are included. Also, the i3 is not competitive in a larger market with Bolt, Tesla Model 3, upcoming 2018 Golf E, and plug in Hybrids from Hyundai with all electric ranges on a par with the i3 and costing tens of thousands of dollars less. i3 sales will disappear this time next year.

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I think this is a fair understanding of a changing market with the biggest threat being the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in van. Huge, it also has a reasonable EV range and then runs on gas:

• 33 mi, 40 kWh/100 mi, 32 MPG, 8 seats - Pacifica plug-in ($42-45k)
• 97 mi, 30 kWh/100 mi, 35 MPG, 4 seats - BMW i3-REx ($47.5k)

Had I not bought a used BMW i3-REx last year, the Pacifica plug-in would have been my first choice. Removing six of the eight seats would have made it a very affordable camper with plenty of room for my mobility limited wife. You are correct to identify the Hyundai Ioniq plug-in as a serious price competitor.

ted99 said:

Will BMW drop the price of the i3 $20K next year and increase battery capacity closer to 200 miles? I don't think so. I think the upcoming i3 Sport will be the last i3, before being cancelled after the 2018 model year. If so, will BMW provide replacement batteries in 8 years? Is it time to bail out even with the huge losses we will take because of the horrible resale values for our i3's?

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Since I bought our BMW i3-REx, used, $29.9k, similar used ones are now in the $20-$23k range. I am not surprised and looking at what happened to the early Leaf, these EV cars depreciate pretty quickly. I never expected this car to be immune to depreciation nor the 'honorable competition' to remain asleep.

Speculation on my part, I can see a class of 30 mi (~50 km) plug-in developing. Pollution control in cities makes a lot of sense and then gearing the motor for high-torque, urban travel, it complements the problem of current gas engines. Then tune the engines for high efficiency intra-urban, it is a sweet solution that has long legs.

Bob Wilson

Thanks for the two very thoughtful replies. Some notes:
1) If you are participating in this forum, you are an uncommonly informed consumer.
2) I bought (wish I had leased) my 2014 Rex for exactly the reasons enumerated. I was very interested in it's light weight and strong CF structure and lack of ferrous metals (only 2 steel parts--lower rear control arms). I wanted an urban car for use inside the Beltway. I have no qualms about jumping in the i3 for a short hop to the grocery, whereas I lumped short trips together to be sure my ICE car fully warmed up on a trip. I bought the Rex because, at the time, I didn't have a home charging solution.
3) The 60Ah battery is really just big enough for me now that I have a home charging solution. If the 90 Ah battery had been available, it would have been a no-brainer to get and I fully agree with the comments to the effect that "why haul around a bigger battery than you need"--also "why haul around a Rex motor that you don't need".
4) The average consumer (not us) will not see the i3 as a contender because it's short range, even with a Rex, and it's high relative price.
5) I bought one of the first i3's in Houston. I saw a car that should be around a long time because of it's construction and I was willing to pay the BMW premium. My car has been in the shop 12 times in it's nearly 3-year life. Battery has been out to replace the cooling circuit expansion valve, three replacements of the passenger compartment and battery cooling A/C compressor assembly. Three replacements of the fuel filler flap solenoid. One regular service and a bunch of recalls/service bulletins for Charger system replacement, motor bolt replacement, fuel vent replacement and software to reduce the charger capacity by half awaiting replacement of the charging system due to a design fault.
6) I did not anticipate my i3 depreciating to 1/3 what i paid in less than 3 yrs. Given the lease deals that came out after I bought my car, I would never, ever purchase a new i3. As soon as my warranty runs out, I'll trade for a used off-lease 90Kwh Bev i3. I still like the car for the reasons I bought it, just not my car.
7) My wife's car is a leased 528i. At first opportunity, I'll trade that in for a 530e because the argument for a plug-in hybrid is compelling. Her driving is almost exclusively to Bridge Tournaments. The plug-in has enough range to get her on the freeway and a switch to gas/hybrid from then on. I'll have to recharge her about every third day. This is where BMW says they will be placing their empthasis for future electrification.
8) I leased the 528i because I was anticipating an i5 with the same CF structure, a larger battery, and a larger Rex fuel tank. Now that that's gone, I'll stick with a 530e and a traded-for 90 Ah off-lease i3.

ted99 said:

. . . Now that that's gone, I'll stick with a 530e and a traded-for 90 Ah off-lease i3.

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Sad to say, we often have very limited windows to make decisions based upon what we know and is available in the market. So it sounds like a fair plan but I sure wouldn't worry if when you have to make a decision, it goes in another, exciting direction. Regardless,

GOOD LUCK!
Bob Wilson

The Honda Clarity plug-in is looking very attractive as a substitute for the 530e, if I can get my wife off a fixation on German cars. All will ride on how it seems when available in Texas.

Sorry I know, old topic.

But I was looking forward to the i5 or i6 or whatever's next. I was looking into the Tesla Model 3 but apart from having to wait in line for one, I think the i3 is the perfect EV for me right now. Wife bought a Volt coz we need a long-range vehicle that still has enough EV range for her daily commute.

Was really hoping for the i5 to at least match the Bolt's range or even exceed it.

Anyways, I'm leasing my i3 till end of 2019 so BMW has time to come up with something new for me

While the i3 is selling about at the rate I think BMW thought, over the years it has been available, it has not grown to become a major seller as some had hoped. The design is polarizing, and I think they feel that looking conventional, but with new capabilities will be easier to sell in volume. I'm not sure that's the case, but I don't control things there! Maybe if VW's reincarnation of the bus as an EV, if it sells well, may change their mind some. By then, though, they'd be behind the curve. I too was looking to replace my cars with an i5, assuming it met the design goals originally expressed...oh well, I can live with what I have for things to get more interesting and the battery tech to advance.

Actually, i really like the i3 for what it is and how it was made and how it looks, polarizing as it may be. It stands out. I am still hoping for something similar in the future. The '18 i3S looks to be one step towards making it look less futuristic.

On that note, i really think BMW should pay us marketing fees. As i3 owners, i feel we are EV ambassadors. I can't count how much time I've spent talking to people about my i3 when they see it. It's difficult to ignore. Never has anyone inquire about my wife's Volt. Not once.

FrancisAi3 said:

The '18 i3S looks to be one step towards making it look less futuristic.

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Yeah, and I think they're diluting the I 'brand' by increasing the motor's power and banging on about better acceleration at fast speeds. That's not really what this car is all about... it's about efficient driving.

Oh well... :roll:

I do like the metallic navy blue, but I can do without all the extra chrome nonsense and weird highlights.

I wonder if existing i3's iDrive hardware is capable of running v6 of the iDrive software? Is such an upgrade possible I wonder?

FrancisAi3 said:

I can't count how much time I've spent talking to people about my i3 when they see it. It's difficult to ignore.

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Yes, likewise. I've directly been responsible for five 94Ah BEV sales that I know of.

I have a 2017 i3 with REX

Love the car.

Hoping BMW or Audi come up with a BEV SUV so I can replace my current ICE SUV.