The estimated range is similar to what you'd get from an ICE...check it after a run down the interstate at a steady speed without stops or major changes of speed, and it may say you'll go a long ways on the tank before empty. Won't be true if you were then to be in the city with lots of stop and go and idling. Conversely, if you'd just spent all that time in traffic, stop and go, and very inefficient operation, and it would say you'll not go all that far to empty. Then, go and change your operation to the opposite, and the estimated range would be all wrong.
The i3 is the same thing...the shown estimate is based on what was done in the last 18-miles or so and the current operation - it takes awhile for it to readjust if your driving conditions change.
Throw in the cold weather affect that is basic to batteries (they have less capacity when cold than when warmer), and your range to empty may be lower. Lithium ion batteries aren't as affected as say lead acid ones, but it's still there. Throw in that any heat for your comfort comes from the batteries versus a waste product from an ICE, and that becomes a factor when it's really cold out.
IOW, the guesstimate is just that. Once you learn your car, you'll be better at estimating what's real based on what you just did verses what you plan to do next. For example, I've had instances when I've driven over 10-miles and the estimated range to empty increased because my driving style and weather conditions differed considerably. I've also noted it drop after taking it out of a heated garage, parking it outside, and then leaving it overnight and noticed the estimated range dropped more than 10-miles when I got back into it.
Cold weather drops the max range. High speed travel drops your max range. Accelerating fast doesn't necessarily, but wasting energy by using the brakes versus regeneration slowing you does. A steady speed is best, and drag goes up as a cubed factor, so a little makes a big difference.