How long are most US leases ? Looking to buy used i3

Dear US members,

How long are most leases - two years or three years or a mix (guess % ?)

What percentage of i3s are leased vs. bought ? (Just a guess unless you work for a BMW dealer).

I am planning to buy mine when the used market is flooded with cars coming off lease and people are "Ahhing" over the 200 mile BEVs (Chevy Bolt and Telsa Model 3). Hoping for $17,000 or so.

Just FYI, my current car is a 1982 Mercedes Benz 240D with manual transmission. Rotting rubber is starting to become as issue. Steel parts are still in great shape. So I am looking at a BMW REx as my last car (I am age 62). No hurry to buy, but planning ahead.

Most trips are in New Orleans and are under 8 miles round trip. However, for the once in five years hurricane evacuation, a "recoded" 8 liter REx should do the job.

Thanks,

Mine is 24 months but there should be a lot of them coming in this year when the 2017 is released. They are talking about doubling the range. That will lead to some people upgrading for sure.

I think CA required a minimum 3 yr. lease to get max tax credit. Since there were lots of incentives and charging infrastructure there, I suspect lots of the leased i3s were there.

GA also had a very attractive tax credit until this year, but it has been discontinued. If you are in NoLa, a visit to GA is not out of the question. There should be lots of them coming back off lease in the next months / years.

The first US deliveries were in the May 2014 timeframe, so if a 2-year lease, some should be coming in soon. But, we are not talking about a high-volume car here, and average on BMW (not by model, though) is around 50% lease rate verses buy from what I've heard. That may change by area.

jpa2825 said:

I think CA required a minimum 3 yr. lease to get max tax credit. Since there were lots of incentives and charging infrastructure there, I suspect lots of the leased i3s were there.

GA also had a very attractive tax credit until this year, but it has been discontinued. If you are in NoLa, a visit to GA is not out of the question. There should be lots of them coming back off lease in the next months / years.

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CA is 30 months for the $2500 rebate.

USA EV sales by month and model are at

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

January 2016 was a dismal month for the BMW i3. Over 11,000 sold last year.

I can track sales two and three years ago to guess how many cars are coming off lease. As supply rises, the used car sales price should drop (absent a hike in gas prices). Also, when 200 mile range BEVs (Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3) hit the market, they will attract buyer interest away from the "old" EVs.

Alan Drake
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1982 M-B 240D, 4 speed manual and manual window winders

Just leased my in Dec 2015, 30/m, 25k miles lease. Quality for CA $2500 rebate.

My best GUESS - I can buy, somewhere in the USA, an i3 REx with less than 14,000 miles for $17,000 (+TTL & transportation) in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Today the lowest price i3 REx's start at $28,000, so I am forecasting a 40% price drop in 18 months.

The factors in my judgment are:

1) an extra 18 months and one model year depreciation
2) Many i3s coming off 24 and 30 month leases by then (fewer off 36 month leases) and being wholesaled. The volume of used i3s will be large enough to drag prices down.
3) The lower cost 200 mile EVs will be getting all the media attention, the Chevy Bolt and Telsa Model 3. So a nominally 80 mile range EV will seem passe' (despite REx and that 80 miles is more than enough).

Range will become the new horsepower. People did not need more HP decades ago, but it sold cars. So too for longer range EVs (IMHO).

Just a guess.