Depreciation costs and battery wear?

[ecoangel]

Some reports suggest i3 will be around 1/3 new price after 3 years.

So re-sale around £8750 GBP.

Looking at other EVs we can see Citroen C Zero started at £25,486 :

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/citroen/c-zero

and there is a 2011 for sale at £10995 from a UK dealer which is a 57% drop in 2 years - and just 11,723 miles on the clock:

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/2011-Citroen-C-Zero-5dr-Auto-Electricity-/271245781985?pt=Automobiles_UK&hash=item3f27822be1

Perhaps the factor is battery capacity - how much your Laptop battery holds after 1000 charges is of course significantly less than when new.

BMW i seem to be looking at secondary uses for battery packs after they no longer fulfill driving range - which I understand is g-teed for 8 years max 100,000 miles

Up until the 1980s ICE (gas/petrol) engines often required rebuilds around 100,000 miles. As oil and materials improved engine life improved. Diesels go on for longer in part because diesel is a lubricant (petrol is a cutting fluid), the rpm is around half the equivalent petrol and the engines are built stringer (higher compression ratios cf petrol).


So will we see re-manufactured battery packs? Or will BMW offer upgrade batteries as the technology improves?

 

[AndrewDebbie]

C-Zero was vastly overpriced. New ones were sold at huge discounts and that depressed resale prices.

The Gen 1.5 Leaf is not only improved over the previous car, it is also much less expensive. Again that has had an impact on used prices. An 11 reg Leaf is about £12,000 to £13,000 although they seem to sell quickly enough. The 12 reg cars are £14,000 to £15,000


Just like mileage and service history on any used BMW, remaining Battery life will become important. BMW should be ready to supply a 'battery condition report' with a used i3.



Charging the battery to 100% in very hot weather is one of the fastest ways to kill a pack. Less of an issue here in the UK where 30C+ days are almost unheard of.

Unlike Leaf, the i3 has a liquid cooled pack. That should increase pack life. So does keeping the charge between 20% and 80%. For people with a typical commute of less than 40 miles a day, this is easy enough to do.

 

[Parker]

i3 PCP residuals have been out for a few weeks now so we know what the wider market (not just BMW) think the residuals of the i3 will be and they are pretty good.


Now of course the i3, like all Germans cars, is very rarely purchased as a standard car so bear that in mind, so any options you add will contribute to a higher depreciation figure than these.
Also PCP values always err on the side of caution - so there is probably a £2k cushion built into these figures

3rd party (non BMW) PCP figures.

The Base i3 EV after 3 years and 30k miles ......... guaranteed minimum price is £11,400 or 43% value retained

The Base i3 Rex after 3 years and 30k miles ..........guaranteed minimum price is £12,700 or 45% value retained

To give you an idea of how the i3 stacks up ....

An Audi Q3 2.0 SE 4x4 S tronic = £28k (no extras) after 3 years and 30k miles guaranteed minimum price is £13,800 or 48% retained
but remember the Audi owner will have spent at least an additional £4,700 on diesel just to drive their 30K miles

So if you feel nervous about residuals and don't want to lease .......a PCP is a good way of giving yourself a financial safety net.

 

[ultraturtle]

This is an excellent example of why everyone benefits from government help to push important new technologies like this.

Getting 1/3 value after 3 years is still an excellent deal, and (hang on to your calculators) here's why:

Assumptions:
$3.50 per gallon gas price
35 mpg similar car
12,000 miles driven per year
$0.11 per kWh

Initial purchase $42,275
Federal Tax Credit -$7,500
State Tax Credit -$5,000
Fuel Cost Savings -$2,880 (compared to a similar 35 mpg car)
-------------------------
Net Cost at 3 yrs $26,895
1/3 Value at 3 yrs -$14,092
-------------------------
Cost of 3 yrs driving $12,803

That's $356 per month. In my opinion, a damn fine deal for a car this sweet.

 

[Plug]

That's $356 per month. In my opinion, a damn fine deal for a car this sweet.

Yip, and adjust those calcs for the price of fuel in the UK (about $8.30 a US gallon) and also include a 100% capital write down tax benefit if purchasing through a company (along with the government 'plugin' grant) and the numbers make sense over here too

People see the headline price and write it off as un-competitively expensive but when you look at the big picture I think it's ok, especially if you can keep it for a few years and do large mileage.

 

[ecoangel]

Good comments but what if you reallly do large mileage?

After say 3 years and 60,000 miles how is PCP?

My own calcs:

Assuming no battery degredation and all charging at home and Non REx model:

LEASE:
8000 miles/year x 3 = 24,000 miles (not enough for me)
Cost of lease is £16279 or £5426/year
Add on electricity (100 charges of 21kWh at 15.84ppkWh per year) = 333/year or about £1k over 3 years

So 17279/24000 = 72 ppmile or around £5800 per year excl insurance.

need more miles so

BUY:
18000 miles per year / 80 miles per charge = 225 charges x 21 KWh = 4725 kWh / year
General UK Domestic tarrif of 15.84 ppkWh (EBICO) Costs approx £750/year to charge.

Over 3 years:
Basic Car Approx £25k, Electricity (assumes not price hikes!!!) £2245, Mileage 54k
Resale at £8.5k so 54k miles costs £18745 or £6248 per year, or 35ppmile
Now this excludes, wear and tear, servicing, insurance and all the extras on offer

Compare this with ICE car:

BMW 116d/VW Golf new BM versio/A3TDI ULTRA:

Around 11ppmile fuel cost based on 60(IMP)mpg, 300(Imp) gallons at £1.45.litre (may well rise!) = just under £2k per year based on 18k mile/yr

Fuel plus Depreciation:

If re-sale £7k after 3 years and 54,000miles

£19940 or £6650/year = 37 ppmi

---------------------

Of course this is all about new car losses - buying a 1 year old car is the most popular way in Germany "Jahreswagen" - that's how I paid a lot less than new price for my A2 in 2002. Now my fuel cost is around 8ppmile even after 185,000 miles - when it was new, fuel cost was around 4ppmile which is much the same as today's EV juice price.

 

[Parker]

Good comments but what if you reallly do large mileage?

After say 3 years and 60,000 miles how is PCP?

Pure EV with standard interior after 3 years 60k miles the residual = £9,700 (3rd party value - non BMW)

I genuinely don't think the i3 will be the cheapest way to travel unless you work in central London commute from the suburbs (of London) and its a company car - then hands down it will be the cheapest mode of transport - I would suggest there are plenty of people that fit that description. For the rest of us its a personal calculation as to whether it makes sense - for some it won't financially - but there are still other reasons to consider the i3.

 

[Parker]

It will be interesting to revisit this thread in 3 years time when the first of the 24k mile lease cars are coming back into the system.

I may be wrong but I think a 24k mile Rex with decent spec will not go for under £20k - lets see.

BMW are the masters of supply control ....... and i3 will be controlled more than most.

 

[ecoangel]

Of course BMW supply and current demand look good for initial values and I think the battery pack will live longer than the warranted period. However, depreciation is still a big factor for private buyers.

Bearing in mind the BMW markup/kudos, we can look at Ampera prices for REX cars and LEAF for EVs Auto Trader now list 1013 (13 plate) with 8000 miles at £22k

Thats a massive 35% (assuming 1st owner was already paid Govt £5k grant, it's a 44% if not) in under a year.

Vauxhall have also shaved off another £3.5k off new price in recent days.

So 28 mpg real world after 25 to 47 miles electric. How on earth can this be marketed as an eco or economical car?

LEAF:

13 reg with 6000 miles seems to fair a bit better than the Ampera quoted with asking price of £19k for initial outlay of £30.5k that means 38% loss in first year...... ( or 26% if Govt grant?).

 

[Jkoeller]

Vauxhall have also shaved off another £3.5k off new price in recent days.

So 28 mpg real world after 25 to 47 miles electric. How on earth can this be marketed as an eco or economical car?

I don't understand your comment about the Vauxhall/Volt, ecoangel. I easily get over 35mpg after depleting the range of the battery, but the beautiful thing is that I wake up every morning with anywhere from 25-52 battery miles available (depending on the season), so I almost never need to use gas. My Volt thus far has provided me with 26,000 miles @ 270mpg in its lifetime, while still giving me the ability to drive as far as I need to on the occasions where I need a couple-hundred miles of range (which I've had to do several times). Compared to anything else out there, how can you *not* market it as an eco or economical car?

 

[ecoangel]

Re: Ampera (and same applies to 2014 A3 e-tron):

Figures were from Autocar road test.

Whilst I appreciate if one only has a short commute at low speeds it is effectively a heavy electric car.

That's where the i3 has some advantages in it's lighter build and smaller or no REX.

We need to compare apples with apples and from an eco point of view the mpg quoted is unrealistic because the car is using an alternative source as well as petrol. If I had a ford fiesta petrol car that did 30mpg and persuaded my friends to push me 2 miles every day before I started the engine it is less than honest to say I was achieving 32mpg. For a start every 30 miles I'd have to call them up for a push!

Now how do my friends supply that energy?

After the 25 or so EV miles are used up say on a 100 mile journey, I still have 50 to 75 miles to drag a now depleted battery around with a small 1.4 litre petrol engine that puffs out CO2 and (according to recent German TuV tests) potentially 10 times more particulates that the latest diesels. What is more,the REX is often cold when it starts and if it needs to charge the battery from a very low state, it may have to run at high RPM which means increased engine wear and emissions till up to temperature.

Compare the weight of the new e-tron A3 to it's A3 1.4 TSI sister - its around 23% heavier. Every 10% of vehicle weight reduces efficiency by 4% so once etron has travelled 31 miles on battery power it becomes a much less efficient petrol car.

30 to 40 mpg (Imp) is not that impressive - my 1969 Lancia gets that with ease. For over 14 years in the EU we've had bio diesel fueled machines that can do over 100km / 3litres with under 85g/km CO2 - so where is the progress? Hopefully the i3 will encourage further progress.

On the EV side, UK power generation is mostly fossil fuel based such that DEFRA says we burn 503 g/ CO2 per kWh. In Southern Spain or CA USA the answer is Solar or other renewables and that's a major plus point for EVs.

However, the old adage about fossil fueled cars needed a network of fuel stations and petrol needs energy refining etc is often quoted in these debates, but so is lithium mining, mechanical coal mining, shipping of batteries around the globe...... Those pro and minus about energy from well to wheel pretty much cancel each other out because most of our goods arrive on diesel powered ships and HGVs and power stations might even be fueled by refined kerosene fired turbines and the national grids have losses.

 

[Jkoeller]

I can tell you from 26 months of first-hand experience that Autocars numbers are an absolutely worst-case scenario. The only time I get only 25 miles per charge is if the temperature is under 20 degrees Fahrenheit (throughout the year, I average 41-42 miles per charge). You'd have to be driving like an idiot in city traffic to get less than 36 mpg on the engine. And a very low percentage of people have commutes that are 100 miles or more. If you do have a 100 mile or more daily commute, then you are partly right in that there are other cars that might be a better choice if your primary concern is being Green.

I have what I consider to be an average commute (1000 miles per month), live in an area with varying temperatures (anywhere from 0 - 100F in any given year), and I don't drive like a grandpa. This so far has netted me 270 miles per gallon of petrol in those 26 months. 26000 miles and I've used less than 100 gallons of that nasty petrol to do it. Is the Volt perfect for everyone? Absolutely not. Is it perfect for me? Absolutely. At least until there is an affordable EV with 300 miles range and an adequate number of fast-chargers in place. I can appreciate that you might not choose a Volt for yourself given your 100 mile commute, but you're not its target demographic, anyway. However, I am. There's no other 'eco' car made that fits my transportation needs any better.

If you're including 'dirty' electricity in your reasoning, then that applies to all EV's and it's not really something I can control except for my own situation, for which I have solar (http://i1350.photobucket.com/albums/p771/jmkoeller/Left6Cropped_zps4cc2a6ea.jpg).