Why I'll wait for the next-gen i3

[ultraturtle]

Cove3, Mindmachine, chill. A hydrogen fuel cell car is an EV. The only current distinction is how the electrical energy is stored. Both systems drive an electric motor. Toyota and Hyundai will flail and eventually fail in the marketplace with thier current offerings (1 to 2 kWh battery banks, large capacity fuel cells, with no plug-in capability) because they fail to recognize that a properly implemented fuel cell solution would be a Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) a.k.a. Range Extended Electric Vehicle (REx) with significant battery range (say 80 miles or so) and a range extending fuel cell system on par with the i3's - roughly 1/3 to 1/4 their current ridiculous 90 hp and 124 hp offerings.

They're not stupid. They'll figure it out, as will other manufacturers.

I personally can't wait for the day BMW offers a similar output fuel cell in place of the 34 hp REx gasoline engine as an option. It would be worth the trip to fuel it up once or twice per year.

 

[Anonymous]

Fuel cells make no sense. Economically they lose badly to gas and fully electric. Practicality wise they lose to gas and electric (no refueling stations). Produces more CO2 than electric as the hydrogen is produced with natural gas as the source.

Tesla got it right, make a battery that stores 400+km of range, and put fast chargers along routes people travel long distances.

Now work on the economics of battery production and let's see the results in 5 years time.

 

[cove3]

Us armchair strategists don't count for anything when deciding what the future direction of vehicles will be. The important players have decided using resources infinitely greater than we have at our disposal and they've decided fuel cells, with existing ices, ice hybrids and long range bevs as interim solutions.

I'm guessing their analysis includes:
1. Long term, oil and coal have to be phased almost completely out of the picture. A few dozen island nations under water, a couple dozen more Sandy Hooks, and several million smog related deaths will drive that point home.

2. Fuel cell cars can get by with a 24kw battery like the Hyundai or Toyota. 60 or 80kwh batteries are heavy, expensive, Level 3 charging time is too long and falls off after 80%, battery life is affected by constant fast charging, there are natural resource limitations of powering the world's transportation system with big batteries etc

3 Batteries are not feasible for construction vehicles, buses, long haul trucking, ships, etc

4. Any battery technology improvements will also benefit the small battery in a fcev

5. There's a entire energy/gasoline distribution private sector that will not sit around and let electricity take it's market away. They'll just switch over the kind of energy they deliver

6. The fc infrastructure is a non-issue. It can be done for 5% of one years defense budget or 1% of what was spent in Iraq, once it's decided to do it

7. Short range bevs will always be viable, as Toyota has shown with their graph, for local driving. Fcs can't compete as they require the same small battery, but need the additional cost and weight of tank and fc pack on top of that. The Hyundai for example weighs 4000 lbs


8. The fuel cell technology improvement slope is steeper than the battery slope.

There's too many important players who have already made the decision. Tesla's grand vision of a battery only future is out gunned by these players but also by the physics of oil, coal and electricity.

 

[noakey]

Us armchair strategists don't count for anything when deciding what the future direction of vehicles will be. The important players have decided using resources infinitely greater than we have at our disposal and they've decided fuel cells, with existing ices, ice hybrids and long range bevs as interim solutions.

I'm guessing their analysis includes:
1. Long term, oil and coal have to be phased almost completely out of the picture. A few dozen island nations under water, a couple dozen more Sandy Hooks, and several million smog related deaths will drive that point home.

2. Fuel cell cars can get by with a 24kw battery like the Hyundai or Toyota. 60 or 80kwh batteries are heavy, expensive, Level 3 charging time is too long and falls off after 80%, battery life is affected by constant fast charging, there are natural resource limitations of powering the world's transportation system with big batteries etc

3 Batteries are not feasible for construction vehicles, buses, long haul trucking, ships, etc

4. Any battery technology improvements will also benefit the small battery in a fcev

5. There's a entire energy/gasoline distribution private sector that will not sit around and let electricity take it's market away. They'll just switch over the kind of energy they deliver

6. The fc infrastructure is a non-issue. It can be done for 5% of one years defense budget or 1% of what was spent in Iraq, once it's decided to do it

7. Shore range bevs will always be viable, as Toyota has shown with their graph, for local driving. Fcs can't compete as they require the same small battery, but need the tank and fc pack on top of that.

8. The fuel cell technology improvement slope is steeper than the battery slope.

There's too many important players who have already made the decision. Tesla's grand vision of a battery only future is out gunned by these players but also by the physics of oil, coal and electricity.

Ando 9.. which is easiest fir the government to create dependency and tax heavily....

 

[ultraturtle]

I agree with cove3's observation, with one clarification.

2. Fuel cell cars can get by with a 24kw battery like the Hyundai or Toyota.

While the battery output of the Hyundai is, in fact 24 kW, it only stores 0.95 kWh of energy. Were they to up that to 24 kWh, and provide a means of charging it from the wall, then yes, it would be a useful vehicle. The Toyota similarly is estimated to have "under 2 kWh" of battery energy storage, and an output of 21 kW.

 

[cove3]

Thanks for the update. That clears up a misunderstanding I had. FCEVs require a battery to store regenerative brake power and because fuel cells are sluggish in responding to start up and under heavy load such as passing. So the battery only needs to be a small reservoir to absorb braking energy and dispense load energy but it is not as you say a storage battery as in the Volt. Thus it's not designed to plug in and drive around with while the fuel cell acts as a range extender

I finally found the battery weight of the Hyundai battery which now clears up my confusion. It weighs 47kg or 100lbs as compared to the 700lbs in the e-Golf or 2100lbs in the Tesla. I had been thinking all long as a 24kwh battery it would weigh more like an i3 or e-golf and that the Hyundais 4100lb weight was partially due to a heavy battery but that is not the case. However, if they were to make it more than 1kwh and make it more usable as a plug in, then it wouldn't weigh 100lbs. It's an myriad of possibilities though...a plug in fcev, perhaps small like an i3 or large like the Volt with the fc replacing the i3 rex or Volt ice

It will be interesting to see what the e-golf fcev will weigh when it comes out. A fcev tank+contents is around 350lbs. Having a 100lb battery versus the e-golf 700lbs gives them 600lbs to play with for the fuel cell stack, which however appears to weigh considerably more, so I'm guessing 3800lbs, as a Golf is a smaller car than the Hyundais 4100lbs. So cost and weight will still make the e-Golf viable vs fcev if one's use is mostly urban short range driving.

It's the medium and long range driving plus the bus/truck/ship/construction market that is the battle ground in the long term between fully electric and fcev (assuming ices/hybrids are out long term due to climate change). In this scenario, I just don't see how Tesla can win going up against Japan/China/California/Toyota/Hyundai plus the others hedging their bets with fcevs like VW, BMW, Honda, GM and others. The mega battery plant is not using any new battery technology, articles suggest economies of scale won't amount to much savings, and several articles have indicated players cutting back or dropping out of new battery technology research efforts.

Ron

 

[jadnashuanh]

When was the last time the US Government had a plan to improve the infrastructure that had any meaningful effect? In the 50's when they started to build the interstate highway system. That started the death of commuter rail and longer-distance passenger rail service. Look at Europe - trains go almost everywhere, generally on-time, economical, and fast. Around where I live, they've been trying to lobby for extending the commuter rail from Boston another 15-miles or so, and in 15-years, there has been little progress. We have decommissioned most of our rail beds and right-of-ways, and, with a few exceptions, the rails are not suitable for high speed transport unless a major upgrade is funded on the few that are left. Amtrak plays second fiddle to the right-of-way to freight trains, which often plays havoc with their schedules.

We have been paying a fee with all of our airline tickets to improve and maintain the airports...there are situations where existing airports are way overloaded. How often does a new airport get built? How about adding runways? How about improving air traffic control?

We, and probably a lot of other places have been ignoring the infrastructure for a very long time because nobody wants to pay for it out of taxes. THere's a reason why the taxes on vehicles and fuel are higher in most other industrialized countries. A billion here, a billion there, each one means another couple of dollars in taxes for every person, and since many don't pay any, that's more. Should we spend it? Probably, but that's neither here nor there...the fact is that we aren't, the will is not there to do it, adding extra things just may not be viable in the short term.

And, as has been said, while 'burning' H2 is clean, making it and transporting it isn't for the most part, and to scale it up is a major undertaking. Chicken/egg...infrastructure doesn't support it, so demand is low, so vehicle choices are very limited, if they exist at all.

Battery densities will increase - BMW has some newer battery tech that makes some significant improvements already, but it may take awhile to get the production and reliability testing out of the way. THe industry is working at making batteries more efficient and energy dense. Is it the best solution? Depends on your timeline and what happens.

In the example listed...a 21Kwhr FC is about the equivalent of a 28hP, and thus smaller than the REx in the i3. But, the conversion efficiency in the REx is not as good, so maybe equivalent. People have issues with the REx, given certain situations, you could run into the same thing on a FC powered car, especially if it was supplied with a small battery...28hp won't take you very fast very far.

 

[WoodlandHills]

While many Americans do not pay Income taxes, every hourly worker pays payroll taxes. To say about a large segement of our society that "many don't pay any" taxes is just plain wrong and is an insult to the millions of low wage workers who struggle every day to get by and provide for their families.

The ones getting a free ride off of our tax system are the Hedge Fund Billionaires whose earnings are taxed at the Capital gains rate and not the income tax rate the rest of us pay. Not millions of hard working citizens who haven't seen their incomes rise for decades (the entire middle class).

 

[jadnashuanh]

Looked at as intended...dividing the population into working and non-working (there are LOTS of children in the country!), with say 333M people, that's $3/person/billion, and maybe a third to a half do not work! Then, while people pay FICA in the USA on all wages up to a certain dollar income, that is not supposed to go into the general funds, and many of those low-income, low-wage jobs therefore do NOT pay any income taxes in the end. Anyone that drives a petrol fueled car pays taxes to both the feds and the state for that petrol, but again, while that money is not supposed to go into the general funds, that isn't happening, either, so while we've funded maintenance and expansion of our road infrastructure to a point, those taxes have not kept up with inflation, and not all of that money actually goes back to provide the services intended in the law. Even the billionaire hedge fund people pay FICA, but our convoluted laws may allow them to minimize their income tax load and 'fair share'. You can blame that on the people we elect, and, how we elect them.

 

[Eperigny]

Well, if you want to vote with your pocketbook, you should change your vote if you want a perfect i3 in the future. If everybody is waiting for the perfect EV, it might never come because manufacturers will say there is not enough market to justify the massive investments in R&D. The more people buy, the more we are sending a message that we don't want to drive on gasoline anymore.

BMW knows we want more range and if the market is big enough, there will be a lot of competition toward the perfect EV and range will come. Don't forget that Tesla is in the race.

I voted myself with buying an i3 even though I knew it was not perfect, but I now love it so much that I want to buy another EV to replace my wife's retromobile (2013 MB C-Class).

Filling up in my garage every night is so much better than filling up weekly at the pump.

 

[woundedi3]

Former i3 Owner Writing With Mixed Emotions

When I took delivery of WBY1Z4C50EVX62892 [REX equipped which I believe is indicated by the EVX in the VIN number] in May of 2014 I was full of hope as I drove the 72 miles (116 km) from the dealership back home with 96 miles (154.5 km) of charge indicated with 36 (58) remaining when I finally arrived. Even in the construction chaos on Texas Highway 190 through Killeen, Texas the absence of the usual ICE drive train sounds made for one of the most serene driving experiences I’ve ever had. Half the time, I found myself wishing the car was a roadster with the top down. However even with this, problems with demonstrating the Business Navigation System in the vehicle at the time of delivery was just a foretaste of what was to come.

The first of four trips to the shop solved the Business Nav problem by the installation of software, which I believe should have been caught and installed at Leipzig before the car was shipped.

Then one Thursday when attempting to make a Music Therapy appointment at the VA Hospital Temple, Texas I started the vehicle only to discover I had only 60 miles (96.6 km) of charge to work with. I made the 72 mile (116 km) trip to the Charge Point station at the BMW dealership in Temple with 13 miles (21 km) of charge remaining. The culprit was the KLE module, which was replaced. I also incurred a $60.00 U.S. expense in my own replacement of a Bussmann 50LET fuse in my Bosch EL-51253 charging station, this having to be specially ordered from a Killeen, Texas based electrical wholesaler and shipped from Dallas.

If the problems had been limited to those listed above I could have rode it out. But what ultimately served to seal this i3’s fate in so far as my ownership of the vehicle was concerned was the appearance in the center display of the following twice inside of 400 miles (644 km),

“Fault in airbag, belt tensioner or belt force limiter.”

Given the considerable number of Ford F-250 trucks, Chevrolet Suburbans and Tahoes to say nothing of the number of those equipped with grill guards that in Central Texas I have to share the roads with, this was decidedly unacceptable. To add insult to injury I was informed that if my i3 had to be returned for the same fault a third time, there was the possibility that the vehicle would have to be taken to another facility to have the memory wiped and the software reinstalled. Even the notion of exchanging like for like at the time was most definitely off the table. I traded for a 328i. Unfortunately this exchange did not involve the defective i3 being taken off the books as it should have been as has been reflected in my billing for vehicle payments from BMW Financial thus far.

Before returning the vehicle for trade-in, I displayed it at the 14th Renewable Energy Roundup & Sustainable Living Expo at the Bell County Exposition Center in Belton, Texas from Sept. 26th to the 28th of 2014. The last shop visit ending on the 22nd of that month made for some anxious moments as I had committed to show my i3 due to lack of interest on the part of dealers in the area that sold EVs of any kind. All of the EVs at the show were provided by their owners with the exception of a startup dealership in Austin specializing in used EVs.

I, of course, explained the vehicle even using cutaways I had found on the internet as part of my display. When the issue of my not keeping the vehicle came up I explained that it had nothing to do with charging issues but one of safety relating to the SRS, belt and shoulder harness. I did also relate that the 96 miles (154.5 km) of charge I had to work with when I took delivery was never reduplicated. How much only having 223 to 233 VAC at my disposal to charge my i3 in Lampasas County was a factor I may never know. As I recall one call from iConcierge mentioned a reduced charging rate being implemented as an interim measure till on board charging issues could be resolved.

Whatever route I take to final resolution of my i3 problem near term, I am still not certain that another i3 is a sound idea. The reason being is that I do not believe the deployment of the SAE International combo plug standard is near as far along as it should be. If it is either SAE International, some of its equipment partners or the appropriate forum should make this known and avail themselves of every opportunity to publicize it.

That being written, I still view the basics of WBY1Z4C50EVX62892, such as regenerative braking, acceleration, general fit and finish, heating, A/C, engagement of the REX and the execution on that much CFRP, to have been without flaw. Even if time can heal my wounds, I’m still wary.

 

[MikeS]

Bottom line was you returned the car because the seat belt or airbag may have been faulty? Seems excessive giving that for many of my earlier driving years seat belts were unusual and air bags (except sitting in the driver’s seat) were unheard of.

 

[Schnort]

Well, that and it seemed like a particularly unreliable car.

And the charging never seemed to work right for him.

 

[woundedi3]

MikeS

I can not vouch for driving conditions and the size of vehicles in the mix in the UK or even the environs inside and in the outskirts of Brighton in the past or the present. Only those such as yourself can do that. I my self can remember my first car that wasn’t a hand-me-down, a 1974 VW Beetle, as having seat belt and shoulder harness and the large crash pad in the middle of the steering wheel. My hand-me-down car before that was one of those Yank Tanks, a 1965 Oldsmobile Dynamic 88 with a 7 liter V8, an automatic transmission with only 3 forward gears with only the lap belts and a steering wheel with all of the chrome.

Here in the U.S. the only penalty, if you can call it that, for driving vehicles the size of Ford F-250s as well as Chevrolet Tahoes and Suburbans these days is a provision in some insurance companys’ policies calling for higher premiums to cover the disproportionate amount of damage a vehicle of that size causes in the event of a collision with a smaller vehicle such as an i3.

 

[MikeS]

Some would say the best way to make drivers more careful would be to put a 6 inch spike in the centre of the steering wheel! Whereas we seem to concentrate on making the driver feel invincible!

 

[woundedi3]

I was in the military at least long enough to be familiar with the term situational awareness. All of the safety gear mandated for vehicles these days unfortunately tends to diminish situational awareness whilst raising the cost of the vehicle by a similar amount. That spike in the center of the steering wheel would be much less expensive.