How much more are these going to depreciate?

[alohart]

Trump is going to be the biggest factor as he has said he will remove the law for reducing petrol consumptions going forward. This would quickly kill EV’s.

Not likely. The federal government would need to revoke California's right to set its own emissions standards which California would fight all the way to the Supreme Court. Its decision would likely occur after Trump is no longer President.

 

[wiredmeyer]

Honestly, I think the biggest factor in depreciation (in the US at least) is the availability of EV incentives.

i3 purchasers in Southern California can get $7,500 from the federal government, $2,500 from the state, and $10,450 more from their electric utility company. That makes a $55,000 car effectively less than $35,000 -- so start counting your depreciation from there!

https://www.insideedison.com/stories/residential-customers-can-now-get-10-000-off-a-bmw-i3

Where I live there's no state or utility incentive for the i3, so I'm hitting the used market. Fortunately for me, those incentives are basically priced in, as long as you're potentially willing to buy and ship from a remote location, as I'm doing.

In California the utility incentives ($10k) are just discounts from BMW. Can get the same discount as a customer of Costco as well. The utility direct incentives are in the $400 to $500 range.

 

[jadnashuanh]

The way I look at it, if the car does what you want with regards to max range, the plastic body panels, carbon fiber frame (life module), and aluminum other bits...the car will last a VERY long time. At least with the BEV, there's no ICE maintenance, and the brakes should last a long time. All cars depreciate...if you don't need a new one, the old one will often suffice for a very long time and when it does come around to trading it in, on any vehicle when it gets that old, they're not worth a whole lot and those later years, the depreciation tends to stabilize and slow down. If you're one that wants a new vehicle on a regular basis, say 2-3 years, unless you're getting a subsidized lease, the cost/lease gets a bit more lopsided towards leasing. Personally, I haven't had a car payment for nearly 30-years...I buy a new car when either the old one pisses me off, or there's something in the new one that just ends up too enticing. Luckily, I've not had to replace one because it was either stolen or totaled. My average car ownership is trending to longer periods, but prior to this, about 6-8-years or so. My GT is approaching 7-years (next month), and still runs as new, looks good, and I have no incentive to replace it or my i3 at this time.

If I could get a hybrid, OR they start to make 350Kw fast chargers on every corner, I'd rethink having an ICE or hybrid. As it is, the i3 solves 95% of my driving needs with the original battery pack, and those other 5%, the GT was paid for when I bought it, it still works fine, so I've no incentive to replace it (yet). I wouldn't drive the REx long distance, and would use it as intended, only very occasional use. It just did not seem worth the maintenance and reliability or expense to purchase it, especially since I would have probably kept it way past warranty expiration.

Say you're single, can afford a huge mansion, does that make a single bedroom flat useless to you? Do you really need that mansion...you may want it, but the way I look at it...unneeded range is in the same category...if it cost the same, sure, why not, but if what I have is sufficient, it's not worth dumping it for another for something I won't use.

 

[sipabit]

Say you're single, can afford a huge mansion, does that make a single bedroom flat useless to you? Do you really need that mansion...you may want it, but the way I look at it...unneeded range is in the same category...if it cost the same, sure, why not, but if what I have is sufficient, it's not worth dumping it for another for something I won't use.

Exactly. There's a misunderstood expectation by consumers right now. They're all comparing EV's to Teslas and think they need a 200mi range car. Few drive more than 50mi a day. Go figure.

 

[alainlevy]

I am a newbie... I wanted to open a new thread but it tags along pretty well with this one.
I tried the i3 last week and I am still in shock. I want one now!!!

My plan is to buy a second hand one now and swap it for a new or almost new one in a year or two when the new 125 Ah battery gets released. Also, by that time, I will probably get a government incentive for scraping my 2002 400’000 km diesel daily driver.
My question is whether I should buy a 66 or 94 Ah one for now. Which one will depreciate less in, let’s say, 18 months / 20’000 km.
My minimum requirements are REX + sunroof + heated seats.
I can get a 2015 40’000 km 66 AH for about 26’000 euros (I am in France).
Or a 2017 94 AH with 4000 km for 37000 euros.

It is difficult to predict the future, but which one do you think should depreciate the least over a year or 2...? Obviously, if the balance is comparable at the end, I would much rather lean towards the 94 Ah model as it will serve my needs better.

To start answering my own question, I have mixed feelings (hence this post...):
The 66 Ah is pretty cheap right now, and I would believe it will always retain some value. As mentioned earlier, how low can it go... ?
By the time the 125 Ah is out, the first generation will seem very obsolete. Half the range.... Whereas the 94 will still be the ‘second best’ and more sought after.

As you can see, I am indecisive. Any advice appreciated.

Thank you.